# Harper Financial Analysis Index — Launch Period
**Updated:** 2026-02-26 | **Author:** Harper
**Purpose:** Single reference to find any financial data point. Stop requesting new reports — the work is done.

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## 10 Reports Produced (Feb 25-26)

### 1. National Expansion Financial Model ⭐ (Master Reference)
📁 `memory/national-expansion-financial-model.md`
- CAC per city (7 cities) — §1
- Break-even timeline (3 scenarios: Month 7/9/14) — §2
- Working capital requirements (90-day: $3,723) — §3
- City-by-city revenue projections — §4
- **Sensitivity analysis** (match rate, marketing spend, price, burn rate) — §5
- Risk-adjusted summary with probabilities — §6
- Resource allocation ranking by city — §8

### 2. Match Rate Ownership Analysis
📁 `drafts/match-rate-ownership-analysis.md`
- Match rate → revenue formula ($17/mo per 1% at Month 3)
- Recommended owner: Cog
- 10 metrics (primary + secondary) with targets
- Optimisation levers by agent (supply, algorithm, UX, pricing)
- First-hire guarantee proposal
- Weekly match rate review process

### 3. Match Rate Supply-Demand Gap Analysis
📁 `drafts/match-rate-supply-demand-analysis.md`
- Empty marketplace cost analysis (-$500 to -$2,000 per failed contractor)
- Hostel conversion funnel (0.3%-2.8% end-to-end)
- **Sustainable match rate threshold: ≥20%**
- Churn spiral modelling
- Supply-before-demand sequencing plan ($310, 3-4 weeks)
- Construction labour shortage data (486K workers needed, 300K shortfall)
- Competitor pricing (Yakka $200-2,800/week vs RateRight $50)

### 4. 30-Day Post-Launch Weekly Model
📁 `drafts/30-day-post-launch-weekly-model.md`
- **Weekly cash flow** (Week 1-4, three scenarios)
- Cost timing (when money leaves the account)
- Zero-revenue period analysis (7-35 days)
- Burn rate breakdown (with/without marketing)
- **Scale/hold/cut decision framework** (Week 2/3/4 triggers)

### 5. Customer Support Cost Analysis
📁 `drafts/customer-support-cost-analysis.md`
- Ticket volume projections (10-320/month over 18 months)
- Ticket type breakdown (60-70% automatable, 30-40% human)
- Cost per ticket (3 models: founder, outsource, full-time)
- Automation ROI ($15K-$37K saved over 12 months)
- **Hiring thresholds** (PT VA at >25 human tickets/month, FT at >300)

### 6. Calibrated Revenue Model (Actual Pipeline Inputs)
📁 `drafts/revenue-model-calibrated-inputs.md`
- Susan's 24 contractors + 37 hostels → calibrated projections
- **Daily granularity** (Day 1-30 activity model)
- 30/60/90 day projections with real pipeline
- Break-even recalculated: Month 8-10 (realistic)
- Interactive dashboard spec for Builder (Section 7)

### 7. Pre-Launch Projections Update (Susan + Builder)
📁 `drafts/pre-launch-projections-update.md`
- Susan's 7-channel plan: marketing 78% cheaper ($73-138 vs $500-700)
- Builder UX impact: +20-40% signup completion
- **25 workers Week 1 vs 15 = 3-4 months faster break-even**
- Updated burn rate: $977-1,040/month (down from $1,575)
- Break-even: Month 8-10 (2 months earlier than generic model)

### 8. Pre-Launch Compliance Checklist
📁 `drafts/pre-launch-compliance-checklist.md`
- 31 items across 8 categories
- **3 blockers:** PI insurance, Stripe test, refund policy
- Labour hire licensing analysis (QLD/VIC/SA/ACT)
- Spam Act risk on SMS outreach
- Total compliance cost: $1,700-$3,400 Year 1

### 9. Launch Readiness: Blockers + Marketing Compliance
📁 `drafts/launch-readiness-blockers-and-marketing-compliance.md`
- Step-by-step action plans for 3 blockers
- **Refund policy draft** (ready for Michael's approval)
- 7-channel marketing compliance review
- **Michael's action card** (45 min across 3 days)

### 10. Financial Controls: Stripe + Refunds + KPIs
📁 `drafts/financial-controls-pre-launch.md`
- Stripe chargeback = $25 on $50 transaction (50%)
- **Zero chargeback tolerance at low volumes**
- Refund spike stress test (100% refund rate = $4K, survivable)
- **12 KPIs** with targets and red flags
- LTV estimation framework ($293-$879 per contractor)
- Weekly financial review template (10-line format)
- Emergency response protocol (refund rate triggers)

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## Quick Lookup

| Question | Answer | Source |
|----------|--------|--------|
| What's our burn rate? | $852/month fixed, $977-1,040 with marketing | Report 7 §4 |
| When do we break even? | Month 8-10 (realistic, Susan's plan) | Report 7 §5 |
| How many hires to break even? | 21/month | Report 7 §5 |
| What's our CAC? | $3-7 blended (workers + contractors) | Report 1 §1 |
| What's the match rate threshold? | ≥20% sustainable, <10% = death spiral | Report 3 §3 |
| How much cash do we need? | $3,723 for 90 days, have $24,408 (6.6x coverage) | Report 1 §3 |
| What if every hire gets refunded? | $4K loss over 6 months. 16% of cash. Survivable. | Report 10 §2 |
| When to hire support staff? | Not for 12-18 months. AI-first. | Report 5 §6 |
| What are the compliance blockers? | PI insurance, Stripe test, refund policy | Report 8 §9 |
| What KPIs to track? | 12 KPIs: 4 acquisition, 4 monetisation, 4 efficiency | Report 10 §3 |

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**This index replaces the need for additional financial reports.** If a specific data point is missing from these 10 reports, tell me what it is and I'll fill the gap. Don't request another full model — the models are done.