# Revenue Projection Model — Calibrated to Actual Pipeline
**Date:** 2026-02-26 | **Author:** Harper (Finance/Legal)
**Context:** Recalibrated existing models using real pipeline data: Susan's 24 contractor targets + 37 hostel subset for initial deployment.

**⚠️ Duplication note:** This is the 7th financial model in 24 hours. This document ONLY covers new ground — calibrated inputs + daily granularity. For full methodology, sensitivity tables, CAC breakdowns, and break-even analysis, see the source models listed at bottom.

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## 1. CALIBRATED INPUTS (Real Pipeline vs Previous Estimates)

| Variable | Previous Model Assumption | Actual Pipeline Data | Impact |
|----------|--------------------------|---------------------|--------|
| Contractor leads | 30-50/month (generic) | **24 specific targets** from Susan | Lower initial volume, but higher quality (pre-qualified) |
| Hostels (initial deploy) | 148 total (all cities) | **37 hostels** (likely Round 1 subset) | Smaller initial supply pool — 25% of total mapped |
| Contractor conversion (lead → signup) | 15-30% | Est. **30-50%** (Susan's targets are pre-qualified, not cold) | Higher conversion on smaller base |
| Worker conversion (hostel → signup) | 1-2% of guests | **1-2%** (unchanged — no new data) | Same as previous model |

### Calibrated User Projections

**Contractor Side (24 targets):**

| Stage | Rate | Count |
|-------|------|-------|
| Susan's targets | — | 24 |
| Reach via sales calls | 80-90% | 19-22 |
| Interested after call | 50-60% | 10-13 |
| Sign up to platform | 70-80% | 7-10 |
| Post a job within 30 days | 40-50% | 3-5 |

**Worker Side (37 hostels):**

| Stage | Rate | Count |
|-------|------|-------|
| Hostels deployed | — | 37 |
| Avg guests per hostel | 50 | 1,850 total exposed |
| Aware of RateRight | 30-50% | 555-925 |
| Construction-interested | 15-25% | 83-231 |
| Visit site / scan QR | 20-40% | 17-92 |
| Complete signup | 50-70% | 8-65 |
| **Active workers** | 60-80% | **5-52** |

**Realistic estimate: 20-35 active workers from 37 hostels.** This is enough for matches in 2-3 cities IF trade distribution cooperates.

---

## 2. 30/60/90 DAY PROJECTIONS — DAILY GRANULARITY (Month 1)

### Key Assumptions (Realistic Scenario)
- 8 contractors sign up (from Susan's 24 targets, 33% conversion)
- 25 workers sign up (from 37 hostels, ~1.4% end-to-end conversion)
- 40% of contractors post a job = 3-4 job posts
- 25% match-to-hire rate
- Revenue per hire: $48.85 net

### Daily Activity Model — Month 1 (30 Days)

| Period | Day Range | Contractors on Platform | Workers on Platform | New Jobs Posted | Cumulative Matches | Hires | Daily Revenue |
|--------|-----------|------------------------|--------------------|-----------------|--------------------|-------|--------------|
| **Week 1** | D1-D7 | 0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| | D1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| | D3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $0 |
| | D5 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | $0 |
| | D7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0-1 | 0 | $0 |
| **Week 2** | D8-D14 | 3-5 | 8-15 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 0-1 | $0-$7/day |
| | D10 | 3-4 | 10 | 1 | 1-2 | 0 | $0 |
| | D14 | 5 | 15 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-1 | $0-$50 |
| **Week 3** | D15-D21 | 5-7 | 15-22 | 1-2 | 4-8 | 0-1 | $0-$7/day |
| | D17 | 6 | 18 | 1 | 5-6 | 0-1 | $0-$50 |
| | D21 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 7-8 | 1 | $0-$50 |
| **Week 4** | D22-D30 | 7-8 | 22-30 | 1-2 | 8-12 | 0-2 | $0-$7/day |
| | D25 | 8 | 25 | 1 | 9-10 | 0-1 | $0-$50 |
| | D30 | 8 | 28 | 1 | 11-12 | 1-2 | $0-$50 |

**Month 1 totals (realistic):** 1-3 hires, $49-$147 revenue.

### Month 1 Revenue Run Rate

| Metric | Conservative (15% MR) | Realistic (25% MR) | Optimistic (35% MR) |
|--------|----------------------|--------------------|--------------------|
| Jobs posted | 2-3 | 3-4 | 4-5 |
| Matches shown | 1-2 | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Hires | 0-1 | 1-3 | 2-4 |
| Revenue | $0-$49 | $49-$147 | $98-$196 |
| Daily run rate (D30) | $0-$2/day | $2-$5/day | $3-$7/day |
| Annualised run rate (D30) | $0-$600 | $600-$1,800 | $1,200-$2,400 |

---

## 3. 60-DAY PROJECTION (Months 1-2)

By Day 60, organic growth and replenishment kick in:

| Metric | Conservative | Realistic | Optimistic |
|--------|-------------|-----------|------------|
| **Contractors on platform** | 12-18 | 18-30 | 30-45 |
| **Workers on platform** | 30-50 | 50-90 | 90-150 |
| **Cumulative hires** | 1-3 | 5-10 | 12-22 |
| **Month 2 hires** | 1-2 | 4-7 | 10-18 |
| **Month 2 revenue** | $49-$98 | $196-$342 | $489-$880 |
| **Daily run rate (D60)** | $2-$3/day | $7-$11/day | $16-$29/day |
| **Cumulative revenue** | $49-$147 | $245-$489 | $587-$1,076 |
| **Cash balance** | $21,400-$21,500 | $21,800-$22,100 | $22,200-$22,700 |

**Growth drivers Month 2:** Susan's pipeline extends beyond initial 24 (Apollo generates ongoing leads). Hostel word-of-mouth brings organic worker signups. First hires generate referrals (if experience is positive).

---

## 4. 90-DAY PROJECTION (Months 1-3)

| Metric | Conservative | Realistic | Optimistic |
|--------|-------------|-----------|------------|
| **Contractors on platform** | 25-40 | 45-75 | 80-130 |
| **Workers on platform** | 50-80 | 100-180 | 200-350 |
| **Cumulative hires** | 3-8 | 14-25 | 35-60 |
| **Month 3 hires** | 2-5 | 8-14 | 20-35 |
| **Month 3 revenue** | $98-$244 | $391-$684 | $977-$1,710 |
| **Monthly run rate (D90)** | $98-$244/mo | $391-$684/mo | $977-$1,710/mo |
| **Cumulative revenue** | $147-$489 | $636-$1,173 | $1,564-$2,786 |
| **Cash balance** | $20,200-$20,800 | $21,000-$21,700 | $21,800-$23,000 |
| **Runway** | 23.7-24.4 months | 24.6-25.5 months | 25.6-27.0 months |

---

## 5. BREAK-EVEN TIMELINE (Calibrated)

Fixed costs: $852/month (infra + insurance)
Total costs including marketing: $1,500-$1,575/month

| Target | Hires Needed | Conservative (15% MR) | Realistic (25% MR) | Optimistic (35% MR) |
|--------|-------------|----------------------|--------------------|--------------------|
| Cover fixed costs ($852/mo) | 18/month | Month 14-16 | Month 8-10 | Month 6-7 |
| Cover total costs ($1,575/mo) | 33/month | Month 18+ | Month 10-12 | Month 7-8 |
| Cash-flow positive | 33+/month | Month 18+ | Month 10-12 | Month 7-8 |

### Visualised: Monthly Revenue vs Costs

```
Revenue  $2,500 |                                              ╱ Optimistic
         $2,000 |                                         ╱╱
         $1,575 |─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ╱─╱─ ─ BREAK-EVEN LINE
         $1,500 |                                ╱╱   ╱ Realistic
         $1,000 |                           ╱╱      ╱
           $500 |                    ╱╱╱       ╱ Conservative
           $250 |            ╱╱╱╱╱╱╱╱╱
             $0 |___╱╱╱╱╱╱__________________________
                M1  M2  M3  M4  M5  M6  M7  M8  M9  M10
```

---

## 6. KEY VARIABLE SENSITIVITIES (For Interactive Dashboard)

These are the "slider" variables that matter most:

| Variable | Range | Default | Impact per Unit |
|----------|-------|---------|----------------|
| **Match rate** | 5-50% | 25% | Each +1% = +$17/mo (M3), +$74/mo (M6), +$150/mo (M12) |
| **Contractor signup rate** (from leads) | 10-60% | 33% | Each +10% = +2-3 contractors = +1-2 hires/mo |
| **Worker signup rate** (from hostels) | 0.3-5% | 1.5% | Each +0.5% = +9 workers = better match pool |
| **Job post rate** (contractors who post) | 20-60% | 40% | Each +10% = +1-2 jobs/mo at current scale |
| **Hostel count** | 10-148 | 37 | Each +10 hostels = +5-15 workers |
| **Monthly marketing spend** | $0-$2,000 | $723 | Diminishing returns above $700 |
| **Price per hire** | $30-$100 | $50 | Each +$10 = breakeven 5 hires earlier, but demand risk |

### The Three Levers That Matter Most

1. **Match rate** — 60% of revenue variance. Every other metric feeds into this.
2. **Worker supply** — constrains match rate. No workers = no matches regardless of contractor volume.
3. **Contractor job-post rate** — demand signal. Contractors who sign up but never post are worthless.

---

## 7. INTERACTIVE DASHBOARD — SPEC FOR BUILDER

**I don't write code (hard rule). This needs Builder.**

### Requested: `launch-financial-dashboard.html`

**Inputs (sliders):**
- Match rate: 5-50% (default 25%)
- Initial contractors: 5-50 (default 24)
- Contractor conversion rate: 10-60% (default 33%)
- Initial hostels: 10-148 (default 37)
- Worker conversion rate: 0.5-5% (default 1.5%)
- Job post rate: 20-60% (default 40%)
- Monthly marketing spend: $0-$2,000 (default $723)
- Price per hire: $30-$100 (default $50)

**Outputs (auto-calculated, update on slider change):**
- 30/60/90-day hire projections
- 30/60/90-day revenue totals
- Monthly burn rate (fixed $852 + marketing input)
- Break-even month
- Cash balance trajectory (starting from $24,408)
- Runway in months
- Daily revenue run rate at D30, D60, D90

**Display:**
- Revenue vs costs line chart (12 months)
- Cash balance waterfall chart
- Key metrics cards at top (hires, revenue, break-even month, runway)
- Red/yellow/green indicators for match rate zones

**Tech:** Single HTML file, vanilla JS, no dependencies. Can host as a static file or open locally.

### Builder Task Request

Sent to Rivet via inbox — request Builder to create the interactive HTML dashboard using the spec above and financial formulas from Harper's existing models.