---
job_no: 2627
session_id: d58cec3f-9794-4dbf-8976-47b8c893eaab
created: 2026-05-08
agent: lfcs-orchestrator
purpose: Auto-decided + flagged assumptions for 2627. Append-only. Rocky reviews before submission.
append_only: true
---

# Assumptions Log — Job 2627 Airey Park Homebush West

## Auto-decided (no Rocky input needed; confidence ≥60%)

| # | Question | Decision | Source | Confidence | Risk if wrong |
|---|----------|----------|--------|------------|---------------|
| 1 | Q-1 scope | LFCS FRP scope (formwork S+I+strip + steel fix + concrete place-finish + curing) on footings + slabs + drop edge beams + seating terrace concrete elements | RFQ silent (per Rocky); drawings STR25020 = source of scope; LFCS standard 4 items applied; masonry/sandstone retaining wall/earthworks excluded per Standard Library | 75% | scope omission $-impact varies; flagged here as 75% to invite Rocky to confirm scope read at Phase 3 worker take-off |
| 2 | Q-2 site exposure | inland | postcode 2140 (Homebush West, Sydney inner west, no marine exposure); drawings reo cover schedule notes A1 internal slab + A1 external slab (not B2 marine-coastal) | 95% | n/a — strong signal |
| 3 | Q-3 labour rate | $95/hr blended (default) | standing-context §1.3; build-up 8h×$85 + 2h×$105 + 1h×$120 ÷ 10h | 90% | $3-5K on a $100K bid if rate should be $98 |
| 4 | Q-4 margin + contingency | labour direct ×1.10 cont ×1.15 margin = 1.265; materials direct ×1.15 margin ×1.10 cont = 1.265 | standing-context §1.4 locked formula | 95% | n/a — locked rule |
| 5 | Q-5 adverse weather | exclude as variation at day-labour rates (default per 2629 #38) | standing-context §1.5 default; Sydney metro indoor/outdoor mix; programme estimated <8 weeks (small footprint) | 80% | $5-7K if should include 1 day/fortnight |
| 6 | Q-6 LAFHA | OUT | §13.1 LAFHA-via-Botany-distance: Botany NSW → Homebush West NSW 2140 ≈ 25 min one-way (well below 60-min threshold) | 95% | n/a — well below threshold |
| 7 | Q-G3 design maturity | rev D "Issued for Review" = pre-IFC | STR25020 frontmatter; rev history A→D over 5 months | 95% | informs Q-G3a contingency flag below |
| 8 | Q-G4 BoQ format | both — lump-sum-letter + BoQ-response (defensive default) | RFQ silent on format; Liam's prior quote was Letter format | 60% | rebuild work if HC requests different format only |
| 9 | Q-G7 concrete grade | 32 MPa across all elements (slab + footings) | STR25020 S100 + S200 concrete quality tables (drawings rev D) | 95% | n/a — locked design value |
| 10 | Q-G8 reinforcement basis | HC supplies all reo (Grade 500N + SL82 mesh); LFCS places + ties | Standard Supply Split per standing-context §1.2 | 95% | n/a — locked rule |
| 11 | Q-G9 saw-cut joint timing | within 24h of pour (S.J. note S200) | drawings S200 typical sawn control joint detail | 95% | n/a — standard practice |

## Flagged for Rocky review (confidence ≥60% but material risk)

- **Row 7-flag — design maturity contingency uplift.** Drawings rev D = "Issued for Review", not IFC. Standing-context §1.4 says "10% for full IFC" but "90% Design might be 7-8%" or "60% Concept might be 12-15%". Drawings rev cycle A→D over 5 months suggests 85-90% complete. Default 10% may be appropriate, OR Rocky may want to bump to 12-15% to absorb design-revision risk. Material risk: $3-8K on a $100K bid. Rocky to confirm before sealing first-pass.
- **Row 1-flag — scope read confirmation.** Confidence on Q-1 scope is 75% pending worker's drawing extract pass. Rocky to confirm at Phase 4 sanity-check whether worker correctly identified all in-scope LFCS items vs masonry/specialist sub items.

## Open questions (genuinely unknowable — needs Rocky)

- (none — all priority-chain steps yielded ≥60% confidence given drawings + standing context)

## Bid-specific questions discovered

- **Programme dates** — RFQ silent; worker assumes Sydney metro 7:00am–3:30pm Mon-Fri (Liam's quote standard) until Rocky/HC supplies. Document in Phase 0 grill output.
- **HC name** — TBD; document as `HC = TBD` in BoQ frontmatter; sanitisation will catch any leak before send.
- **Rate-Only carve-outs** — if Rocky wants Rate-Only line for adverse weather (per 2630 override pattern) instead of variation default, flag during sanity-check.

## Web research log (priority chain step 5)

| Call # | Query | Tokens | Source URL(s) | Captured fact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | (none — §13.1 deterministic rule resolved LAFHA without fresh web call) | n/a | n/a | Botany→Homebush West Sydney inner-west route well-known; <30 min off-peak; below 60-min LAFHA-OUT threshold |

Budget: max 10 calls per bid. Calls so far: **0/10**.

## Override history (Rocky corrections at the review gate)

| Row # | Original auto-decision | Rocky override | Reason | Logged to lessons? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Row 4 (margin/cont) — labour contingency | 10% labour contingency (default per standing-context §1.4) | **15% labour contingency** | Drawings rev D pre-IFC; full pre-IFC posture per Rocky 2026-05-08T07:38Z batched gate | candidate proposal queued |
| Row 4 (margin/cont) — materials contingency | 10% materials contingency (default per standing-context §1.4) | **15% materials contingency** | Orchestrator-applied parallel uplift. Design-rev risk applies to materials quantum too (cover/thickness changes drive reo + concrete). **Confirmed by Rocky 2026-05-08 Phase 4 sanity-check F8: keep 15%** (consistency-with-labour-cont posture; rev D not IFC). Total stays $45,154 loaded. | confirmed by Rocky |

## Locked envelope (post-override)

```yaml
margin_contingency:
  labour:
    contingency_pct: 15
    margin_pct: 15
    sequence: cont-then-margin
    loaded_multiplier: 1.3225
  materials:
    margin_pct: 15
    contingency_pct: 15
    sequence: margin-then-cont
    loaded_multiplier: 1.3225
  override: true
  override_reason: "Drawings rev D pre-IFC; full pre-IFC posture (Rocky 2026-05-08); orchestrator parallel-applied to materials"
  posture: defensible-for-variations
```

All other locked envelope values (scope, exposure, labour rate, weather, LAFHA, BoQ format) remain per the auto-decided rows above.